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Whether Earth materials exhibit frictional creep or catastrophic failure is a crucial but unresolved problem in predicting landslide and earthquake hazards. Here, we show that field-scale observations of sliding velocity and pore water pressure at two creeping landslides are explained by velocity-strengthening friction, in close agreement with laboratory measurements on similar materials. This suggests that the rate-strengthening friction commonly measured in clay-rich materials may govern episodic slow slip in landslides, in addition to tectonic faults. Further, our results show more generally that transient slow slip can arise in velocity-strengthening materials from modulation of effective normal stress through pore pressure fluctuations. This challenges the idea that episodic slow slip requires a narrow range of transitional frictional properties near the stability threshold, or pore pressure feedbacks operating on initially unstable frictional slip. 

Abstract Post‐fire debris flows alter impacted fluvial systems, but few studies quantify the magnitude and timing of reach‐scale channel response to these events. In August 2020, the Big Creek watershed along California's central coast burned in the Dolan Fire; in January 2021, an atmospheric river event triggered post‐fire debris flows in steep tributaries to the Big Creek. Here, we characterize the evolution of fluvial morphology and grain size in Big Creek, a cascade and step‐pool channel downstream of tributaries in which post‐fire debris flows initiated, using pre‐ and post‐fire structure from motion (SfM) and airborne lidar surveys. We also make comparisons to Devil's Creek, an adjacent basin which burned but did not experience post‐fire debris flows. We observe grain size fining following debris flows in Big Creek, but the coarsest 40% of the grain size distribution remained essentially unchanged despite reorganization of channel structure. Changes in grain size and elevated post‐fire peak flows account for approximately equal portions of a substantial increase in modeled bedload transport capacity one year post‐fire. In Big Creek, geomorphic recovery is well underway just two years post‐fire. A valley‐spanning log jam, which formed during debris flows, acts as a sediment trap upstream of our Big Creek study reach, and is partially responsible for accelerating recovery processes. In contrast, Devil's Creek exhibited little change in morphology or grain size despite elevated post‐fire peak flows. This period of geomorphic dynamism following the Dolan Fire has complex ecological impacts, notably for the threatened anadromous salmonid spawning habitat in Big Creek. 

Abstract. In steep wildfire-burned terrains, intense rainfall can produce large runoff that can trigger highly destructive debris flows. However, the abilityto accurately characterize and forecast debris flow susceptibility in burned terrains using physics-based tools remains limited. Here, we augmentthe Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) to simulate both overland and channelized flows and assess postfiredebris flow susceptibility over a regional domain. We perform hindcast simulations using high-resolution weather-radar-derived precipitation andreanalysis data to drive non-burned baseline and burn scar sensitivity experiments. Our simulations focus on January 2021 when an atmospheric rivertriggered numerous debris flows within a wildfire burn scar in Big Sur – one of which destroyed California's famous Highway 1. Compared to thebaseline, our burn scar simulation yields dramatic increases in total and peak discharge and shorter lags between rainfall onset and peakdischarge, consistent with streamflow observations at nearby US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gage sites. For the 404 catchments located inthe simulated burn scar area, median catchment-area-normalized peak discharge increases by ∼ 450 % compared to the baseline. Catchmentswith anomalously high catchment-area-normalized peak discharge correspond well with post-event field-based and remotely sensed debris flowobservations. We suggest that our regional postfire debris flow susceptibility analysis demonstrates WRF-Hydro as a compelling new physics-basedtool whose utility could be further extended via coupling to sediment erosion and transport models and/or ensemble-based operational weatherforecasts. Given the high-fidelity performance of our augmented version of WRF-Hydro, as well as its potential usage in probabilistic hazardforecasts, we argue for its continued development and application in postfire hydrologic and natural hazard assessments. 

Abstract. To explore the sensitivity of rivers to blocking from landslidedebris, we exploit two similar geomorphic settings in California'sFranciscan mélange where slow-moving landslides, often referred to asearthflows, impinge on river channels with drainage areas that differ by afactor of 30. Analysis of valley widths and river long profiles over∼19 km of Alameda Creek (185 km2 drainage area) andArroyo Hondo (200 km2 drainage area) in central California shows avery consistent picture in which earthflows that intersect these channelsforce tens of meters of gravel aggradation for kilometers upstream, leadingto apparently long-lived sediment storage and channel burial at these sites.In contrast, over a ∼30 km section of the Eel River (5547 km2 drainage area), there are no knickpoints or aggradation upstreamof locations where earthflows impinge on its channel. Hydraulic andhydrologic data from United States Geological Survey (USGS) gages on Arroyo Hondo and the Eel River, combinedwith measured size distributions of boulders input by landslides for bothlocations, suggest that landslide derived boulders are not mobile at eithersite during the largest floods (>2-year recurrence) with field-measured flow depths. We therefore argue that boulder transport capacity isan unlikely explanation for the observed difference in sensitivity tolandslide inputs. At the same time, we find that earthflow fluxes per unitchannel width are nearly identical for Oak Ridge earthflow on Arroyo Hondo,where evidence for blocking is clear, and for the Boulder Creek earthflow onthe Eel River, where evidence for blocking is absent. These observationssuggest that boulder supply is also an unlikely explanation for the observedmorphological differences along the two rivers. Instead, we argue that thedramatically different sensitivity of the two locations to landslideblocking is related to differences in channel width relative to typicalseasonal displacements of earthflows. A synthesis of seasonal earthflowdisplacements in the Franciscan mélange shows that the channel width ofthe Eel River is ∼5 times larger than the largest annualseasonal displacement. In contrast, during wet winters, earthflows arecapable of crossing the entire channel width of Arroyo Hondo and AlamedaCreek. In support of this interpretation, satellite imagery shows thatimmobile earthflow-derived boulders are generally confined to the edges ofthe channel on the Eel River. By contrast, immobile earthflow-derivedboulders jam the entire channel on Arroyo Hondo. Our results imply that lower drainage area reaches of earthflow-dominated catchments may be particularly prone to blocking. By inhibiting the upstreampropagation of base-level signals, valley-blocking earthflows may thereforepromote the formation of so-called “relict topography”.